The Economic, Legislative, & Regulatory Outlook for 2025

As the calendar flips over to yet another year, we have a lot of changes on the horizon. President Donald Trump has promised sweeping changes to the government, such as tariffs on imported goods, which will all have an impact on the printing industry. Not to mention the ongoing labor challenges, economic fluctuations, and more. To address these changes for 2025, we spoke with some of PRINTING United Alliance’s most knowledgeable experts, asking them to take a look in their proverbial crystal balls and give us their predictions about what to expect this year.

Charting the Trends

When it comes to the top trends they are paying close attention to, there are a number of important factors at play.

Andy Paparozzi, chief economist, notes, “I will watch productivity trends most closely. Productivity has risen smartly as American businesses continue to invest in plants, equipment, and software (capital investment is up 28.2% after adjusting for inflation since the end of the COVID-19 recession); benefit from a labor force that has added 7.1 million workers during the past three years; and embrace artificial intelligence to strengthen mission-critical functions from customer analysis to supply chain management.”

For Adriane Harrison, vice president of Human Relations Consulting, there are a few HR trends she will be watching closely.

“The Department of Labor, Wage and Hour Division overtime rule will be revisited, which may result in a completely rewritten rule that changes the analysis of what workers qualify,” she says. “[Additionally], workers may not have to pay income tax on overtime wages, which, if passed, would likely result in a large increase of workers who would be willing to perform overtime work. This, in turn, could result in an easier path for employers that are trying to schedule around fewer available workers.”

One trend that Gary Jones, vice president, Environmental, Health, and Safety Affairs, is watching concerns OSHA.

“One of the first actions Trump took at OSHA was rolling back the requirement for large employers to submit detailed injury and illness reports electronically,” he explains. “In a second term, Trump’s OSHA could move to relax reporting requirements even further, including eliminating requirements for certain employers to keep injury records for extended periods or share them publicly. It is unlikely there will be an effort to increase OSHA’s budget, or even to backfill enforcement personnel who leave the agency. OSHA had the fewest compliance officers in its history during the first Trump administration, and while President Biden increased staffing levels, this will not be a priority for OSHA. It is expected that the number of inspections will decrease.”

On the advocacy front, Stephanie Buka, government affairs coordinator, is watching a number of issues around taxes, tariffs, and regulations. A few of the points she notes will be key priorities for the Alliance in the coming year include:

• Advocating for the Main Street Tax Certainty Act to make Section 199A permanent, allowing small businesses to deduct up to 20% of qualifying pass-through income, currently set to expire in 2025.
• Supporting the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act, which aims to restore immediate expensing for domestic R&D, enhanced interest deductibility on business loans, and 100% accelerated depreciation for capital investments.
• Preserving the Advertising Tax Deduction for business-related advertising expenses, vital for the printing sector’s stability
  and growth.
• Advocating for the Death Tax Repeal Act to ensure that relatives can easily retain ownership of a family business when the owner dies or retires.

Breaking Down The Issues

Diving a bit deeper into some of these issues, Buka goes beyond the tax issues, noting that there are plans this year to appeal to President Trump “to take immediate action on manufacturing-critical regulations in the energy, environment, labor, finance, and technology spaces. The Alliance will continue to advocate for commonsense regulatory reforms that allow domestic manufacturing to grow and enhance U.S. competitiveness in the global marketplace.”

She also notes that postal reform will continue to be an issue in the coming year.

“The Alliance collaborated with Keep US Posted and the Coalition for a 21st Century Postal Service to counter unprecedented U.S. Postal Service rate hikes,” she says. “Thanks to our combined advocacy efforts and pressure from legislators, USPS announced that they would forego a stamp price increase in January 2025. The Alliance is also supporting the USPS SERVES US Act to enhance USPS accountability, limit stamp increases, and promote financial stability.”

On the environmental front, Jones has a number of key programs he and his team plan to target for rollback or alterations. To name just a few, he highlighted:

• Clean Power Plan (CPP) — The Clean Power Plan, introduced during the Obama administration to curb carbon emissions from power plants, was a central target of Trump’s first term. Trump officially repealed the CPP and replaced it with the Affordable Clean Energy Rule. In a second term, Trump could push for even fewer regulations on coal-fired power plants and other carbon-intensive industries, possibly focusing on further reducing emissions standards for existing power plants.
• Vehicle emissions standards — Under Trump’s first term, the EPA rolled back Obama-era fuel economy standards for cars and light trucks. A second term could see further easing of vehicle emissions standards, with the Trump administration likely resisting stricter greenhouse gas reduction goals for the automotive sector. Trump’s EPA could also work to prevent states like California from setting their own vehicle emission standards, a battle that was ongoing throughout his first term.
• Air quality standards for ozone — Under Trump’s first term, the EPA did not tighten air quality standards for ozone — a key contributor to smog — and was sued by environmental groups and some states. Biden’s EPA did not make any revisions after it said it would reconsider the rule, but delayed any decision until after November 2024. In a second term, it is expected that Trump’s EPA will not revise the current standard.
• Air quality standards for particulate matter — After the first Trump administration decided to not tighten the air quality standards for particulate matter, they were sued. The Biden administration took over the EPA and told the court to halt the lawsuit while it reconsidered the rule. They eventually issued a new limit that was tighter than the previous one, and were subsequently sued by at least 25 states and other groups. A second Trump term would likely see another withdrawal from the standard and perhaps rolling it back to the previous limits.

On the human resources side, Harrison notes there are a few points to keep a close eye on as we move into the new year. She highlights:

• Increase of artificial intelligence in HR systems — AI will increasingly be a part of analytics used by benefits and payroll providers. This will result in having more accurate information about the workforce nationally, but also will use the data about your existing workforce to predict turnover, absenteeism, and other trends. The cost of healthcare benefits may be affected by this by the end of the year.
• Crackdown on undocumented workers and more I-9 audits — Make sure you have complied with all of the I-9 requirements so that you don’t have to fear an audit. If you employ undocumented workers, they can seek legal assistance to receive legal status through different paths, some of which may require employer sponsorship.
• State of non-competes — Non-competition agreements (“non-competes”) will not be the subject of further attempts to curtail them by the Federal Trade Commission. In addition, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) General Counsel’s memo about non-compete and “stay-or-pay” provisions in employment agreements will be withdrawn by the new NLRB GC that will be installed in the early days of the new administration.
• NLRB union decisions — Expect a slow change in the NLRB union organizing, recognition, and election decisions. The decisions making it easier to unionize workplaces will be rolled back as the NLRB accepts cases presenting the opportunity to overturn decisions issued in the Biden administration.
• Fewer EEOC investigations — There will generally be fewer Equal Employment Opportunity Commission investigations. Expect much less EEOC activity related to complaints about sexual harassment, sexual orientation, and gender identity.

And finally, on the economic front, Paparozzi points out a few factors that could impact everything from inflation to job markets. He cites:

• Regulatory reform and government efficiency — Paparozzi notes the Alliance will watch the Trump administration’s work on regulatory reform and government efficiency because minimizing high-cost/low-benefit regulations and delivering government services more efficiently would further boost productivity and the virtuous economic cycle it
  supports.
• Tariff policies — He notes that the industry needs answers to questions such as: How much will tariffs increase? Will the increases be targeted or board-based? How much of the increases will American businesses pass along as higher prices and how much will they absorb? And how will our trade partners respond?
• Fiscal and monetary policies — Paparozzi expects fiscal policy to be expansionary, stimulating economic growth but not inflation if solid productivity gains continue. Monetary policy is more of a mystery, because where the Fed takes short-term interest rates will depend on unknowns such as how rapidly the economy accelerates and how inflation behaves. Additionally, where global bond markets take long-term rates will depend on unknowns such as the size and trajectory of America’s federal debt. Neither short-term nor long-term rates are likely to fall as much as financial markets expected six months ago, but that is unlikely to prevent meaningful, durable economic expansion.

Putting it Together

So, what does all of this mean for your business? There are a lot of question marks, but there always are as a new year begins — never mind it being a presidential changeover year. But that doesn’t mean you can’t take action to prepare for what might be coming and position yourself for a profitable 2025.

“Participants in the October/November 2024 PRINTING United Alliance State of the Industry Survey answered that question,” Paparozzi notes. “We asked about their 2025 business priorities. They listed more than 20 in total, ranging from recruiting new skills to support the changing needs of their businesses, to risk management. The five cited most often are productivity, strengthen core services, execution, selective growth (pursuing higher value-added, more profitable work and not following the price cutters in a ‘race to the bottom’), and marketing value created for clients (money and time saved, help communicating more effectively with their clients, etc.) rather than features and capabilities alone.

“Additionally,” he continues, “when we asked SOI participants what they must do to achieve their 2025 priorities, the discussion centered on creating a culture that is ‘focused, intentional, and accepts change;’ sustains commitment to the priorities by ‘painting the vision, communicating why, and mentoring along the way;’ ‘holds each other accountable,’ ‘continues to educate employees on the value of never-ending improvement;’ and encourages employees to ‘keep learning.’”

It’s great advice for every printer, regardless of what segment you serve, what customers you target, or what equipment you’re running. And while there isn’t much you can do about government or regulatory issues individually, consider visiting PRINTING United Alliance’s Advocacy Center to learn more about specific initiatives and get directly involved with ongoing efforts to influence policy and legislation on a state and national level.